Cryptographically timestamped — falsifiable — pre-registered
PROSPECTIVE CONFIRMED: 9 predictions confirmed before data came in
W009 • W010 • W011 • W013 • W015 • SAA separation • NP acceleration • Roaring 40s • Eclipse magnetic pattern
| Category | Definition | Evidential Weight |
|---|---|---|
| PROSPECTIVE | Timestamped before confirming data | Highest — true advance prediction |
| BACKTESTED | Derived by fitting model to existing data | Valid but lower weight |
Prospective predictions are the registry's strongest scientific claim. Anyone can fit a model to old data. Predicting numbers before the measurement is what distinguishes a real model from a narrative.
153 days away | Registered 2026-03-12 | Git + OpenTimestamps anchored
Formula: delta_Z = baseline × coverage × FSF
FSF = field strength factor from V12 H(r)/r dome geometry
Baselines: BOU 2017 (−10.9 nT) | W004 empirical (−22.24 nT)
| ID | Station | Country | Coverage | FSF | BOU pred | W004 pred | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E001 | Ebro (EBR) | Spain | 0.95 | 1.029 | −10.7 nT | −21.7 nT | 2.1 |
| E002 | San Pablo (SPT) | Spain | 0.90 | 1.001 | −9.8 nT | −20.0 nT | 2.0 |
| E003 | Eskdalemuir (ESK) | Scotland | 0.55 | 1.722 | −10.3 nT | −21.1 nT | 2.1 |
| E004 | Lerwick (LER) | Scotland | 0.42 | 2.075 | −9.5 nT | −19.4 nT | 1.9 |
| E005 | Hartland (HAD) | England | 0.80 | 1.471 | −12.8 nT | −26.2 nT | 2.6 |
| E006 | Niemegk (NGK) | Germany | 0.40 | 1.529 | −6.7 nT | −13.6 nT | 1.3 |
| E007 | Canary Islands (SNK) | Spain | 0.72 | 0.642 | −5.0 nT | −10.3 nT | 1.0 |
| E008 | Chambon (CLF) | France | 0.70 | 1.325 | −10.1 nT | −20.6 nT | 2.0 |
| E009 | Coimbra (COI) | Portugal | 0.92 | 1.008 | −10.1 nT | −20.6 nT | 2.0 |
E-PRED-A — Peak tracks eclipse geometry, not solar noon
Each station's signal peaks when the shadow is greatest at that station — not at local solar noon. Globe has no eclipse magnetic mechanism at all. Falsification: peaks at solar noon.
E-PRED-B — Hartland beats Ebro despite lower coverage (V12 vs V9 direct test)
HAD predicted −12.8 nT (coverage 0.80). EBR predicted −10.7 nT (coverage 0.95). HAD wins because its FSF=1.471 outweighs the coverage difference. V9 flat-H model predicts the opposite ordering. This test directly discriminates V12 from V9. Falsification: EBR signal larger than HAD.
E-PRED-C — SG gravimeters 0.0 µGal
Superconducting gravimeters at Membach, Strasbourg, Vienna show no gravity signal. Mechanism is electromagnetic-aetheric, not gravitational. Replicates WIN-013 and WIN-014. Falsification: measurable gravity anomaly.
E-PRED-D — Non-path stations below noise floor
Stations with coverage < 0.25 show < 2 nT signal. Falsification: > 3 nT at any station with < 0.25 coverage.
Registered: 2026-03-06 | Test: 2030 INTERMAGNET annual report
Target: −32 nT/year by 2030
Basis: Exponential aetheric decay curve, INTERMAGNET 2000–2025
Falsification: Field decay stable or decreasing by 2030
Registered: 2026-03-06 | Test: 2055 CHAOS model update
Target: 150° separation
Basis: Extrapolation of WIN-004 exponential (30.8° → 50.6°, 2000–2025)
Falsification: Cells stop separating or reverse before 120°
Prediction: At cities above 55°N, actual Polaris elevation measured with a calibrated inclinometer will be 3–7° higher than WGS84 latitude predicts.
| City | WGS84 Latitude | Dome Predicted Polaris | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo | 59.91°N | 64.4° | +4.5° |
| Helsinki | 60.17°N | 65.7° | +5.5° |
| Edinburgh | 55.95°N | 57.3° | +1.4° |
Why this matters: Globe REQUIRES Polaris elevation = geographic latitude exactly. Dome H(r) curve predicts systematic divergence. A $30 inclinometer on a clear night is enough to test this. Falsification: Polaris elevation matches WGS84 latitude at these cities.
Registered: 2026-03-12 | Test by: 2026-03-19
| ID | Test | Prediction | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W017 | SR fundamental during solar wind >5 nPa | ≥7.85 Hz | swpc.noaa.gov | PENDING |
| W018 | hmF2 descent after >6 nPa spike | ≥10 km within 2hr | lgdc.uml.edu | PENDING |
| W019 | NMP drift direction this week | Poleward dominates lateral | NOAA | PENDING |
| W020 | Roaring 40s 500hPa anomaly | ≥3% above climatology | psl.noaa.gov | PENDING |
| W021 | Moon angular diameter variation | >2% moonrise vs transit | Photography | PENDING |
| W022 | SAA western cell position | West of 45°W, cells separated | ESA Swarm | PENDING |
These predictions were registered as PENDING and subsequently confirmed by independent data. Now promoted to wins — see wins.html for full entries.
| ID | Prediction | Confirmed Value | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| W009 | SAA African cell < 21,795 nT | ~30 nT drop since Jan 2025 | WIN-035 |
| W010 | NP deviation > 18° from 120°E | 139.298°E = +19.3° | WIN-036 |
| W011 | Field decay ≥28 nT since Mar 2025 | ~30 nT confirmed | WIN-037 |
| W013 | Schumann 7.83 Hz ±0.3 | 7.5–7.83 Hz, March 2026 | WIN-038 |
| W015 | Lunar phase magnetic −1.0 nT ±0.5 | 1–2 nT confirmed | WIN-039 |
Suspended pending correction. Known issues: density propagation formula cancels under ellipse geometry, northern latitude twilight formula incorrect. Will be re-registered with corrected formulas and new timestamps once V13 coordinate system is locked.
Git commit history: Every prediction commit carries an immutable SHA hash and timestamp. Public and verifiable. View commits →
OpenTimestamps: Eclipse predictions anchored to Bitcoin blockchain. Block hash proves predictions existed before the block was mined.
How to verify: Take any prediction's SHA256, look up the git commit timestamp, confirm the commit predates the measurement date.